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Terminology & About the System

A short glossary of the terms used across the forecast pages, and how to read them.

TermMeaning
Water Level (mPWD)River stage in metres above Public Works Datum, the national levelling reference.
Danger Level (DL)The stage at which water begins to cause flooding at a station; the primary warning threshold.
HindcastModelled/observed water level up to the present — the run-up before the forecast.
ForecastPredicted water level for the coming days (typically up to a 5-day lead time).
Recorded HighestThe maximum stage ever observed at the station, shown for context.
Flash FloodRapid-onset flooding in the north-east, driven by intense rainfall over the bordering hills.
IsohyetA contour line joining points of equal rainfall depth.
WRFWeather Research & Forecasting model — the numerical weather model behind the rainfall forecast.
Inundation DepthModelled depth of standing flood water over the land surface, in metres.

How the forecast is produced

Observed and satellite rainfall feed a numerical weather forecast (WRF). The resulting rainfall drives hydrological rainfall–runoff models, whose flows are routed through a hydrodynamic model of the river network to produce water-level forecasts at each gauge station. These are compared against danger levels to assign the flood status you see on the map.